Here are a few quick thoughts on the initial College Football Playoff rankings, released Tuesday night.
Nebraska ranked #10 was a pleasant surprise
I thought the Huskers would land somewhere between 12-15, based mainly on the lack of quality wins so far this season. Nebraska certainly doesn't have a "bad loss" by any measure, so the committee must be impressed by how they’ve managed to (mostly) dominate lesser opponents this year. The Huskers win over Northwestern also continues to look better by the week.
Nebraska will have another golden opportunity to impress the committee with a solid performance this weekend in Columbus. The Huskers find themselves in prime position to continue to move up with wins the rest of the way. If the season were to end today, Nebraska would likely be in a New Years Six bowl game – a major accomplishment by any measure.
The path has been laid before the Huskers, now can they take advantage?
The committee really digs the SEC West
Four out of the top 13 teams in the initial rankings come from the SEC West, with most of them yet to play each other. Alabama deserves to be the #1 team (if you disagree, objectively stack their resume against anyone else’s and try to make an argument), but I was a bit surprised to see Texas A&M at #4, Auburn at #9, and LSU at #13. Each of those teams feels at least a spot or two too high.
Take LSU’s resume, for example. What’s their best win? Clearly Ole Miss, in Baton Rouge – who finds themselves at 3-4 on the season. Seeing a two-loss Auburn team at #9 was maybe the biggest surprise of the group, although their two losses are both to teams in the top four. The Tigers aren’t likely to lose any of their next three games (vs. Vandy, Georgia, and Alabama A&M), which means the committee has set up the Iron Bowl as a potential playoff eliminator vs. Bama.
The good news? As mentioned above, the SEC West big guns haven’t played each other yet (for the most part), and so things will likely sort themselves out over time. But, with the initial love by committee, there’s a strong chance whoever wins that division will find themselves in the top four, even with multiple losses.
What will be interesting to see, is if the SEC West winner were to get upset by the SEC East champ, who would grab the spot in the top four?
The Big Ten is in great shape
Five of the top 12 teams come from the Big Ten, with Penn State sneaking in at #12 after a big win over Ohio State two weeks ago. There’s also good balance, with two teams from the Big Ten West and three from the East comprising that group.
It’s a pretty clear statement that, much like the SEC West, whoever wins the Big Ten should be a near lock for the playoff, even if said team were to have multiple losses.
The Big 12? Cooked.
The fact that the Big 12’s top ranked team is a two-loss Oklahoma squad tells you all you need to know about the conference this year. Anyone that watched Oklahoma against Texas Tech knows that this isn’t a playoff caliber team.
I can’t fathom a scenario that would see a Big 12 team playing for the championship, especially without a 13th data point in the form of a conference title game. Dark times for the Big 12.
The Pac-12 is on shaky ground as well
Not seeing an undefeated Washington team in the top four right now makes me think the Huskies’ margin for error is very, very small.
They have exactly one top-25 win: last week against Utah. They’ll have exactly one more shot (as of today) to put one in the win column before the season ends: the Apple Cup vs. Washington State (and they better hope Mike Leach finds a way to keep his team winning). Maybe there’s a shot USC continues to play well and ends up being ranked, but that’s it.
The best case scenario for Washington might be to see Colorado go on to win the Pac-12 South – otherwise the Huskies would be looking at a repeat game against Utah or USC, and I’m not sure that does as much to impress the committee. And as a side note – as much as I love the Buffs this year, the conference on the whole is strong enough to prop up a two-loss Colorado team as a legit playoff contender, even if CU runs the table.
No matter how you spin it, Washington appears to be the Pac-12’s final hope for a playoff berth, and they might have to run the table to make it happen.
