Breakdown:
This might be the most bizarre region in the tourney. It's filled with first round match-ups of teams with clashing styles. There could be some ugly games as teams try to force the game to be played their way. Oregon earned a surprising one seed. They were the Pac-12 champs and earned their way to a high seed despite losing seven times. The Ducks are led by former Creighton head man Dana Altman. And he has them playing a familiar brand of high-octane, up-tempo basketball. They're ranked fifth in the nation in offensive efficiency. That stat is even more impressive when you consider they played the seventh best defensive schedule in the country. Even if they're a bit surprising on the one line, they'll be a very tough out. The number two seed in this region is one of the most entertaning teams in the country. Oklahoma seemed to be involved in every game that caused twitter to explode this year. It felt like every week they were squaring off with another top 25 team and playing an overtime thriller. However, the Sooners have to re-discover their midseason form if they want to make a Final Four run. The rest of this bracket could be a free-for-all. Teams like St. Joseph's, Northern Iowa, Texas, Wisconsin-Green Bay, and VCU played some of their best basketball down the stretch. They're all entering the tournament on a bit of a hot streak, and there's no reason one of that group couldn't stay red hot and turn this into the official bracket of chaos.
Players To Watch:
When it comes to must-watch tv the conversation has to start with Buddy Hield. The Oklahoma guard made a habit of turning Big Monday into his own personal showcase. He's a dead-eye shooter with unlimited range and a knack for finding his way to the rim and drawing contact. He's the country's most inventive and consistent scoring threat, and players like him often turn March into their NBA talent show. But, the biggest NBA prospect in this region is actually on Duke. Brandon Ingram is a 6-9 freshman who shoots over 40% from long range and isn't afraid to bang on the boards. He's gotten better and better as the season's went on, and now he's even getting some buzz as a top pick alternative to Ben Simmons in this year's draft. If you like NBA connections then Oregon State has just the player for you, Gary Payton II. The son of former Supersonics star, Gary Payton, has become a star in his own right. Payton is the heart-and-soul of a scrappy Oregon State team that won a lot of big games this year. Payton is a do-it-all guard who put up numbers in almost every statistical category you can think of. VCU's best player likely isn't NBA-bound, but he's been terrorizing major conference teams in March for the past few years. Melvin Johnson is finally a senior, and he's been tremendous in his last season. He's averaging nearly 18 points per game, and he's one of the smartest defenders in the country. VCU's havoc-style of play allows him to gamble in the passing lanes, causing turnovers, and allowing him to hit threes in transition.
Vulnerable high seeds:
The top of any vulnerable high seed list has to begin with Baylor. The Bears are athletic and aggressive. They have solid efficiency numbers on offense. That doesn't seem like an upset profile. However, throughout the season they found ways to lose every time they were given an opportunity to make a huge statement. They lost to Kansas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia down the stretch. All good teams. All excusable losses. But in the tournament, rising to the occassion is necessary. The Bears have struggled to do that this season. Another Big 12 team, Texas, has an interesting resume. They played a tough schedule and were rewarded for it. But they aren't elite on either side of the ball, and their adjusted tempo is 301st in the country. That means if they get down early they could struggle to play catch-up. They also have some weird losses on their schedule to TCU and Washington showing they have a propensity to underperform against teams with less talent.
Upset-Minded low seeds:
What a bracket for possible upsets. Let's start with the most obvious one. Northern Iowa already owns victories over North Carolina and Iowa State this season. They just slayed Wichita State in their conference tourney. If there's a resume of a giant-killer out there it's this one. Wisconsin-Green Bay could be intriguing simply because of their unique style. They play a guard-heavy lineup at the sixth fastest tempo in all of college basketball and the fastest of all the teams in the tournament. Carrington Love is the type of player who can catch fire and make a top seed nervous. Yale is another interesting possibility. They play great defense and they're one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Those are two things that contribute heavily to winning in March.
The Pick:
I'm going with Oklahoma to re-gain their midseason form and run to the final four. I think chaos could reign over this bracket knocking off some of their toughest competition. The Sooners might find a way to the final four without having to play a top 4 seed.
