OMAHA, Neb. (KMTV) — We've heard a lot from the candidates and talked to voters, but Tuesday is where the rubber meets the road with voters seemingly anxious to cast ballots.
“I suspect turnout that’s a little bit higher than midterm elections,” said Richard Witmer, professor of political science at Creighton University.
3 News Now spoke with Witmer and J. Miles Coleman, an elections expert and associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, to tell you what to expect next week.
The headliner around Omaha is the congressional race between Republican Don Bacon and Democrat Tony Vargas.
Bacon has survived two, tough re-election campaigns; he won in the Democratic wave year of 2018 and kept his seat in 2020 despite Joe Biden also winning the district.
In 2022, Bacon, along with the rest of the GOP, has electoral fundamentals in his favor —typically the party out of power in the White House does well in the midterms.
Website 'Five Thirty-Eight', which makes election results models, gives him a 92 percent chance to win.
But both Coleman and Witmer said Vargas is likely a stronger opponent than Bacon’s former competition Kara Eastman, who ran the last two cycles. The pair cite Vargas’ legislative experience and more moderate stances.
“I think that’s going to help him when people look and think, 'The ads say one thing but the record is very different,'” said Witmer.
While Coleman said Bacon is favored, he did cite 2014 when the GOP did well nationally, but Republican Lee Terry lost to the late Brad Ashford, a Democrat.
“That was one of the few flips that Democrats got in 2014,” said Coleman.
The other competitive Nebraska congressional race is the 1st Congressional District; a rematch from the summer when Mike Flood beat Patty Pansing Brooks. But it was closer than many thought, with Pansing Brooks coming within six points of winning.
Both experts consider Flood a heavy favorite but with abortion on the minds of voters, similar to this summer, it could be closer than when Jeff Fortenberry won elections to that seat.
“Young people in Lincoln, suburban women that are worried about abortion, that has the potential to perhaps keep it closer than what we saw when Fortenberry was in there,” said Witmer.
Coleman also said that the district seems to be going more purple and Democrats have a better chance at it towards the end of the decade.
Another race that drew interest recently is the Iowa U.S. Senate race. Sen. Chuck Grassley is 89 years old, first elected in 1980, and running for his eighth term.
Many thought he’d cruise to re-election as has been the norm, but a Des Moines Register poll from October showed a neck-and-neck race with Democrat Mike Franken.
“If you’re worried about the health of a candidate, six years is a lot of time when you’re 90 years old-plus,” said Witmer.
Sabato’s Crystal Ballstill lists the race as ‘Likely Republican’ but Coleman said if Grassley underperforms and still wins, it could be enough to propel Democrat Cindy Axne, who represents parts of western Iowa, to keep her seat in a tight race with Zach Nunn.
“Grassley may not be as much of a boost to local Republicans as he’s been in past years,” said Coleman.
As for Nebraska Governor, most consider it safe Republican, meaning NU Regent Jim Pillen will likely beat State Senator Carol Blood.
Witmer said Blood might be able to hang tight in the polls in Lincoln and Omaha but rural Nebraska doesn’t tend to vote for Democrats.
“She’s going to be overwhelmed by the third congressional district,” said Witmer.
Regionally, there are races in Kansas and Oklahoma that are expected to be tight, with Democrats having a shot in both. A poll from the fall showed Pillen with just a seven-point lead.
“I think there must be something going on in the Great Plains," said Coleman.
Still, Republicans have routinely cruised to victory in Nebraska; the last time a Democrat won was when Ben Nelson won re-election in 1994.
Pillen also had to get through a brutal primary with Charles Herbster and Brett Lindstrom, Witmer said it’s likely most of those voters will ultimately pick Pillen over a Democrat.
“I would suspect some people will, they’ll vote, they may not be as comfortable as they would have been, but that’s the Republican candidate, they’re going to vote for the Republican,” said Witmer.
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