Groundhog Day. The holiday when the country turns to a rodent for a seasonal prediction, to the collective groan of meteorologists. A few years ago, I put Phil to the test by looking at the past 120 years of predictions. The results are probably what you would expect, and that data is found here.
Nebraska has its own groundhog tradition, Unadilla Bill & Billie! Beginning in 1988, Unadilla Bill (a taxidermied groundhog, the only one in the country) began predicting the arrival of spring in the small Otoe County community. Since then, Bill has become a national name, being one of the only groundhogs consulted on national television. In 2021, Bill retired. Not to be deterred, the predicting continued in Unadilla Billie, his female counterpart.
So, with four years of predictions under her belt, how accurate is Billie? That's what we are here to find out.
Here's how we did it using data from March. March's temperature & snowfall data were examined. If March was warmer and less snowy than average, then it's considered an early spring. Colder or snowier, it's a late winter. If the data is mixed (i.e., warmer than average but snowier than average), then we used our best judgment.
Anyhow, here's the data:
2022
Billie's Prediction: Early Spring
March Temp: Above Average
March Snow: Below Average
Actual: Early Spring
Was Billie right? YES!
2023
Billie's Prediction: Late Winter
March Temp: Below Average
March Snow: Below Average
Actual: Late Winter (NOTE: March was quite cold compared to normal, so despite the lack of snow, it still felt like "winter" beyond the 6-week window)
Was Billie right? YES!
2024
Billie's Prediction: Early Spring
March Temp: Above Average
March Snow: Below Average
Actual: Early Spring
Was Billie right? YES!
2025
Billie's Prediction: Early Spring
March Temp: Above Average
March Snow: Above Average
Actual: Late Winter (NOTE: Despite it being warmer, the two blizzards we had during the month certainly made it feel like winter lasted too long)
Was Billie right? YES!
Over the four years, that's an accuracy rate of 75%! Not bad for Billie...time will tell whether she holds onto that streak this year, and beyond.
