June is typically the most active month for severe weather in Nebraska and Iowa, but this June has been dead quiet. In fact, with the exception of far western Nebraska, June is looking to be one of the quietest on record so far.
However, this might change over the next 24-36 hours as Nebraska into Iowa will expect two rounds of thunderstorms. Below let's outline the track of the storms, the timing of the storms, and the potential threats.
A few storms are possible this evening, mainly south and west of Omaha, but these should remain below severe limits. Attention will focus on the west across western Nebraska as storms begin to develop in the evening. Those storms will likely be severe with large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado possible.
Through Friday night into Saturday morning, those storms should consolidate into a line of storms as they march eastward through northern Nebraska into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a "slight risk", or a level 2 out of 5 risk, for northeast Nebraska. The rest of the area is in a level 1/5 risk for a strong storm with this cluster of storms. Isolated damaging winds look to be the primary risk of these storms.
The line of storms will move into northeast Nebraska by 4 am, reaching Omaha by 6-7 am, and off into western Iowa by 8 am. As of now, the line looks to stay along and north of I-80 for the most part, but anyone in our viewing area can see those storms. It will depend on where exactly the storms develop this evening to our west. So don't be surprised if you hear a few rumbles of thunder on your Saturday morning.
If these storms materialize, they do bring the possibility of some beneficial rainfall for our area, particularly in northeast Nebraska. Rainfall totals could top 1/2" in spots, with any heavier rain cores possibly bringing more rainfall.
Once those storms slide out of our area, we play the waiting game for round 2 of storms. The morning round will be crucial for the evolution of the afternoon round of storms. If these morning storms and clouds stick around through much of the morning, we can consider the afternoon round of storms dead. If these morning storms move out quickly and we see sunshine, the threat of strong storms is there.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined western Iowa as a "slight risk" (2/5) for severe storms, with Omaha, and surrounding areas in the level 1/5 risk.
The further east you go, the higher the severe threat. Those with interests in central Iowa, including Des Moines, should pay attention as that is where the highest risk for storms is.
For Omaha, the chances of seeing afternoon storms is low, but not zero. Therefore, if you are heading downtown or have any other plans, you will want to keep an eye to the sky.
