Tornado season in Nebraska & Iowa varies from year to year; that's just weather, but the past two years it has been stark.
For example, by June 16, 2024, our viewing area had seen 78 tornadoes! At the same time in 2025, it's only been 8.
You might be inclined to believe that 2025 is just a lower tornado season across the US, but this is not the case. According to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), 2025 is the 3rd most active tornado season since 2010, dwarfed by 2024 & 2011.
So, where have the tornadoes been? All to the southeast of Omaha. Missouri, Illinois, and Arkansas have seen record numbers of tornadoes this year. St. Louis in 2025 is the Omaha of 2024 in terms of tornadic activity.
This has sparked conversations that "tornado alley" is shifting east. But is it true? Is tornado alley shifting away from Nebraska & Iowa to Mississippi & Alabama? This warrants a deeper dive, so keep on reading!
WHAT IS "TORNADO ALLEY"?
If you took any earth science or adjacent class in school, you've almost certainly heard the term "tornado alley". Tornado Alley is not a formal meteorological term, but a generic term used to describe the region of heightened tornado activity over the central United States.
The phrase was coined in 1952 by tornado researchers Robert Miller & E.J. Fawbush, the two men responsible for issuing the first tornado warning in 1947 (for details on that amazing story, click or tap here). They used it in research to explore tornado activity from western Texas to Nebraska, and the name stuck.
If the name stuck, the area defined as "tornado alley" did not. Google "tornado alley" and look through the images; you would be hard-pressed to find two maps that exactly align. Almost every map agrees on the region from north Texas to Nebraska, and then it varies. Some maps extend it north into the Dakotas, east into Iowa, or northeast into the Midwest. For many, Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma are synonymous with tornadoes, and many grow up believing tornadoes only happen in that region.
Then, the data began to contradict things. While the 1950s-1970s had several major tornadoes in the Great Plains, a disturbing trend of tornadoes outside of "tornado alley" began to occur. In 1953, two tornadoes on back-to-back days caused nearly 100 deaths in Flint-Beecher, Michigan & Worcester, Massachusetts. On April 11, 1965, a rash of tornadoes swept through Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Not even 10 years later, on April 3, 1974, the worst tornado outbreak in US history impacted not Oklahoma, but Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Alabama.
It took a major tornado outbreak in February 1971 in the Mississippi Delta before a new term began. Allen Pearson, head of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC), used the phrase "Dixie Alley" to specifically refer to tornadoes in the Southeast US.
Then, more "alley's" began to crop up. There's "Hoosier Alley", which includes Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, and a "Carolina Alley" for the Carolinas. There are probably others, but it seems like the entire eastern US is included in an "alley" (Spoiler: There is a reason for this).
So, with the history out of the way, let's dive into the data.
IS TORNADO ALLEY SHIFTING EAST?
This question has been posed in various forms since the 1970s, but has gained traction in recent years. You may remember news stories about deadly tornadoes striking Tuscaloosa, Alabama; Nashville, Tennessee; or St. Louis, Missouri. Barring stories from Omaha or Moore, Oklahoma, stories of tornadoes in the Plains receive less coverage. So, is this due to a shift in tornado alley?
In some respects, yes. Research conducted by meteorologists last year compared the number of tornadoes, their intensity, path length, and other details between each "alley" to see any trends. They split the data: 1951-1985, then from 1986-2020. Their basic findings were: there was a noted decline in tornadoes over "tornado alley" from the first period to the second, and an increase in tornadoes over "Dixie Alley" in that same period. (You can read the study here, though it is paywalled)
Why? The study shows that not only have tornado trends shifted geographically, but also seasonally. There has been a decrease in tornadoes in the spring months, traditionally the peak of tornado season in the plains, and an increase in tornadoes in winter, when conditions favor the southeast.
So, tornado alley has been shifting east. A few things: 1.) This trend is not very significant; it's not like tornadoes have ceased to exist in the Plains, the shift has been very subtle. 2.) Tornadoes have always hit the Plains; they will continue to occur in the Plains; likewise, tornadoes have always happened in the southeast, and will continue in the southeast. So while tornado alley might be "shifting east", that does not mean tornadoes won't happen (as we saw in 2024). So, during severe weather season, always have a plan on what to do should a Tornado Warning be issued for your neighborhood.
